On the Ground at CPHI Milan: Peptides, Oligonucleotides and Bioconjugation Draw the Money as CDMO Capacity Investment Refuses to Cool

C&EN's on-site reporting from CPHI Milan 2026 (October 6–8) shows capacity investment in contract pharma remains hot despite big pharma's insourcing push: SK pharmteco commits US$200M over five years, Flamma buys Lundbeck's Padova API plant, and Agilent's US$725M oligonucleotide program enters phase one in March 2027. On the demand side, Orforglipron captured over 30% of new US oral-obesity patients within months, pushing peptide API demand toward the tens-of-tons scale.

From October 6 to 8, CPHI Milan 2026 gathered the global API and contract-pharma industry. C&EN's on-the-ground reporting surfaced a fact that runs counter to the 'insourcing' narrative: capacity investment in contract manufacturing (CDMO/API) has not cooled, and capital is concentrating on three fronts — peptides, oligonucleotides and bioconjugation.

The Western capacity list: at least five expansions in one week

The expansions disclosed on site include: SK pharmteco plans to invest US$200M over five years to expand US peptide and small-molecule capacity, build new laboratories and add roughly 100 jobs; Italy's Flamma Group is acquiring Lundbeck's API plant in Padova, adding 220 cubic meters of reactor volume to reach 1,100 cubic meters of total Italian capacity; Agilent is adding laboratory space in Boulder, with phase one of its US$725M oligonucleotide investment slated to come online in March 2027 — its bet on enzymatic ligation, if it scales, could rewrite the cost structure of conventional solid-phase synthesis; Sterling is doubling bioconjugation capacity in Wales; and Hovione is doubling spray-drying capacity in New Jersey.

Demand-side validation: oral GLP-1 pushes peptide API toward the tens-of-tons scale

Behind the capex is continued demand validation. Eli Lilly's oral small-molecule GLP-1 Orforglipron, FDA-approved in April 2026, had already captured over 30% of new-patient share in the US oral obesity market by September 18; tirzepatide posted US$27.69B in global H1 2026 sales (+88%), the world's largest drug. Oral peptides suffer a 'bioavailability paradox' — oral semaglutide's absolute bioavailability is about 1%, so matching systemic exposure consumes tens of times more API than injections, pushing peptide API demand from kilogram scale toward tens or even hundreds of tons. QYResearch expects the peptide CDMO market to grow from about US$4.8B in 2025 to about US$12.6B by 2032 (CAGR ~15%).

China's supply side scales in step

Chinese peptide capacity is ramping just as fast: WuXi AppTec's total SPPS reactor volume has exceeded 100,000 L; Asymchem's peptide capacity is 45,000 L, expanding to 69,000 L by end-2026; and Sichuan Shuangma's Hubei Jianxiang A16 workshop, starting up in November, lifts peptide API capacity from 4 to 10 tons with oral GLP-1 API orders already in hand. Add Samsung Biologics' ~US$2B tender for PolyPeptide and Novo Nordisk's pivot to CMO-sourced peptide API, and peptide manufacturing has become the most intensely contested arena in global CDMO.

Editorial view: the race isn't cooling, but the winning hand is shifting

The CPHI signals cut both ways. On one hand, sustained Western investment in high-end dosage forms and emerging modalities confirms that outsourcing penetration and total demand keep expanding; on the other, the market has begun to worry that peptide CDMO could replay the small-molecule overcapacity script. The divergence point: commodity short peptides will feel price pressure first, while compliant capacity for long-chain and highly modified peptides and for bioconjugation remains scarce — Agilent's enzymatic route is a frontal assault on the cost curve itself. Over the next two years the competitive window narrows, and the winning hand shifts from 'can you make it' to a three-way contest of unit cost, compliance quality and delivery certainty.